Ordering components based on last month’s demand works in a flat-demand business and badly in a seasonal one. A component that sells through summer and barely moves in winter needs a plan that accounts for that pattern.
What a real forecast needs
Historical seasonal patterns — how demand for this component actually moved across last year’s months. What is already happening this year — real shipped-order demand for months already elapsed, so the forecast is not blindly repeating last year. What is already on order — incoming purchase orders and their expected delivery dates, so you are not double-ordering. And safety stock that shifts with the season rather than a flat buffer.
What runs today in Vedron
Vedron builds per-component seasonal factors from last year’s actual BOM-derived demand, blends in this year’s shipped-order demand for months already elapsed, and nets the result against incoming purchase orders by expected delivery date. Season-aware safety stock applies the lower threshold for low season and the higher one for peak.
Direct about what it does not do: it recommends quantities, timing, surplus-versus-shortage flags, but it does not automatically create the purchase order for you. Turning a recommendation into an actual PO is a deliberate step.
Common questions
Does this work for a brand-new component with no prior-year history? Seasonal factors are drawn from prior-year data, so a component without history will not have a seasonal pattern to work with yet. The forecast gets more accurate as a component builds up a year of demand.
What if actual demand this year is very different from last year? This year’s shipped-order demand for elapsed months is blended into the forecast, so the projection moves toward what is actually happening.
Does this automatically reorder stock? No. It surfaces recommendations. Creating the PO is a separate step you take.
Talk to us about your setup
Book a short call. Beta clients get two months of custom setup on us.